Social psychological modelling of fertility intentions

Oral Presentatio

A Biased Review of Sociophysics

Various aspects of recent sociophysics research are shortly reviewed: Schelling model as an example for lack of interdisciplinary cooperation, opinion dynamics, combat, and citation statistics as an example for strong interdisciplinarity.Comment: 16 pages for J. Stat. Phys. including 2 figures and numerous reference

Assessing the use of sample selection models in the estimation of fertility postponement effects

Several studies have shown that at the individual level there exists a negative relationship between age at first birth and completed fertility. Using twin data in order to control for unobserved heterogeneity as possible source of bias, Kohler et al. (2001) showed the significant presence of such "postponement effect" at the micro level. In this paper, we apply sample selection models, where selection is based on having or not having had a first birth at all, to estimate the impact of postponing first births on subsequent fertility for four European nations, three of which have now lowest-low fertility levels. We use data from a set of comparative surveys (Fertility and Family Surveys), and we apply sample selection models on the logarithm of total fertility and on the progression to the second birth. Our results show that postponement effects are only very slightly affected by sample selection biases, so that sample selection models do not improve significantly the results of standard regression techniques on selected samples. Our results confirm that the postponement effect is higher in countries with lowest-low fertility levels

Bayesian spatial analysis of demographic survey data: An application to contraceptive use at first sexual intercourse

In this paper we analyze the spatial patterns of the risk of unprotected sexual intercourse for Italian women during their initial experience with sexual intercourse. We rely on geo-referenced survey data from the Italian Fertility and Family Survey, and we use a Bayesian approach relying on weakly informative prior distributions. Our analyses are based on a logistic regression model with a multilevel structure. The spatial pattern uses an intrinsic Gaussian conditional autoregressive (CAR) error component. The complexity of such a model is best handled within a Bayesian framework, and statistical inference is carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. In contrast with previous analyses based on multilevel model, our approach avoids the restrictive assumption of independence between area effects. This model allows us to borrow strength from neighbors in order to obtain estimates for areas that may, on their own, have inadequate sample sizes. We show that substantial geographical variation exists within Italy (Southern Italy has higher risks of unprotected first-time sexual intercourse). The findings are robust with respect to the specification of the prior distribution. We argue that spatial analysis can give useful insights on unmet reproductive health needs

Bringing norms back in: A theoretical and empirical discussion of their importance for understanding demographic behaviour

Although the life-course perspective emphasizes the importance of the concept of social norms for understanding demographic choices, the usefulness of this concept is heavily debated. In particular, it has been questioned whether social norms are still important in post-modern societies, and whether societal expectations can really be called norms if no sanctions are attached to them. In this article, we review the theoretical and empirical literature, highlight the potential usefulness of the concept, and illustrate its importance by presenting empirical data on the existence of norms concerning demographic choices in The Netherlands, one of the most individualized countries in the world. © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Towards a new pattern of transition to adulthood?

Second Demographic TransitionRecent theories about social and demographic change, such as individualization and the Second Demographic Transition, embed the notion of a convergence towards a specific ideal-typical pathway to adulthood, which we define as late, protracted and complex. After a discussion of the relevant literature for and against such an idea, we empirically assess the convergence to this ideal-typical pattern using new retrospective data from the European Social Survey wave 3 (ESS-3). Our analysis of the timing and sequencing of demographic events among young adults offers qualified support for the emergence of a new pattern of transition to adulthood. Pathways to adulthood are changing in the same direction in most parts of Europe, but no convergence of trends is observed (yet). keywords:transition to adulthood; Europe; timing and sequencing; individualizatio